Social Pundit’s Crystal Ball – Looking at the Lions
I’d originally been planning to do this article in the style of Football365’s squad ladder but discarded the idea after I considered the logistics – once you’ve accounted for every semi-serious contender, the list would be at around a hundred and fifty. Of course, this huge diversity of options is part of what makes the seemingly bi-monthly hypothetical Lions squad such a fun and zombie-esque topic. With a year to go until the squad is named (give or take) it also seems the ideal time to actually start talking about it. There are only another three international windows, only another two HC knockout stages left. The window of opportunity to make a case is shrinking.
Before I discuss which players should, should not, might and will go, I think I should set down how the Lions should play in my book. With so many players, it’s virtually a case of pick a style, so it’s more about the enemy and the coach – and to my mind, Australia immediately set out some very pressing opportunities and problems.
Everybody knows what Australia will throw at us and it starts and ends with the backline, just about the only one in rugby to defy the mantra that ‘forwards win matches’. Australia’s ability to cut a defence in two off of poor ball or even no ball is unequalled and it is largely due the superb handling, footwork and pace present in every Aussie back. On hard ground those advantages are amplified. They might be short of a few bruisers, but that doesn’t seem so relevant in their case. The first thought anyone facing Australia must surely be ‘How do I stop that backline?’ And the second thought, given the seeming futility of the task is ‘How do I keep up with their score rate?’
The flipside of Australia’s ability to regularly win matches without forwards dominance though is that they regularly don’t achieve forwards dominance, or even parity. It’s not wise to overtalk this advantage as Australia have some great players there, particularly David Pocock, but there is a potential soft underbelly. That goes double in the scrum and the pack has to be attacked, as to give Australia forward parity to sign your own death warrant. Equally, not figuring out what to do about David Pocock is a rash move that can lead to death by turnover.
It seems almost definite that the man who will be taking the Lions south is Gatland; poor campaigns for Kidney and Robinson almost sealed it before the Kiwi delivered a rather neat looking Welsh grand slam. That means Gatland ball in attack, probably Edwards running the defence – and a gambler’s streak in selection. Gatland’s never been shy about advancing youngsters who impress him in training and I don’t see that changing with the Lions. On the contrary, the current Lions set up is a gambler’s paradise. He can easily select a few bolters and hide them in the dirt-trackers if it goes wrong and push them for the test team if it goes right.
If we look at the players available, it becomes clear that the Lions can play almost as they wish. It seems equally clear that Gatland will have a number of tough selection decisions. In every position there seems to be a number of talented players, or at least equally flawed. As such, there is relatively little pressure to fit the team around this player or that. The only position in which I feel there is a stand-out, one hundred per cent nailed on player is 12 – where Jamie Roberts towers far above the contenders, many of whom are barely fit to be called test standard. Barring a bolter, the Lions will be playing with a crash centre at 12. That should be a given, and it is one of the first facts the strategy is constructed around.
Therefore I’d construct my offensive tactics about targeting the fringes and the 9-10-12 channels. The Lions have the players to constantly break the gainline there, starting with Roberts, and they have the players to get on shoulders and turn half-breaks into the full thing. England’s Sydney success showed that you can have real joy out of attacking Australia there and ideally Pocock can be taken out of things by forcing him to babysit his backs and burying him at the bottom of rucks. The ball only really goes wide as a coup de grace or to change the point of attack – which means the back three should be expecting to get their hands dirty coming into the line close to the ruck. Elusive runners will lose out in selection, players with raw power and good hands will win.
Defensively, there will be a big requirement on the forwards having the pace to make their tackles, and on players slowing the ball down. I wouldn’t be surprised if the choke tackle sees a high level of usage. Players with high levels of pace are likely to be favoured here, particularly in positions that do a lot of chasing back. Tree choppers aren’t really required, although players who can put in disruptive hits and push the opposition back are. Finally, the set-piece will be important, but probably not pivotal in selection as most of the players up for selection can either point to victories over Australia in that area, or victories over players who have.
All in all, I think the pieces are in place to really challenge Australia. When the Lions went to South Africa I watched with hope, when they go to Australia I will watch in expectation. There are no guarantees, not playing the likes of Australia with a cobbled together team, but I believe that the chinks in the armour and the players to exploit them are there; I’ll start looking at them in the next article.
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Following the announcement by Lewis Moody that he is retiring from international rugby, England Team Manager Martin Johnson said: “Lewis has been a great servant to English rugby and has literally put his body on the line more times than he can probably remember.
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