The last of the phoney war: Ireland vs. England preview
BY SOCIAL PUNDIT: The teams are in as two managers fervently hoping for that vital nerve-steadying victory before the big push go head to head. The exceptionally lacklustre defeat in Cardiff plus the stodgy nature of the squad means Johnson’s critics are beginning their warm-up for complaining about the event proper. Meanwhile, Declan Kidney’s Ireland have endured a poor warm-up and while some ruthless squad decisions might have quietened the masses, victory in Dublin will put a far better spin on events so far. Both need victory. Only one will get it.
Injuries
Neither coach has been lucky with injuries. Any Ireland squad without Brian O’Driscoll is a weaker one. Sean O’Brien’s loss is far more bearable, but with question marks over the fitness of Ferris and Wallace, you can bet that he’d have been in the 22 if available. Felix Jones would probably have been in this fixture if it hadn’t been for his injury against France, the latest is a horrendously unlucky chain of events that only upholds my assertion that nature abhors a Jones that doesn’t play for Wales. From England’s perspective, the absence of both Youngs and Care is a major loss.
Moody is less of one, until I remember that James Haskell is his replacement, at which point I’d have very much liked Moody to be fit. The more I think about it, the more Moody’s absence seems the most important. The slower England’s ball becomes, the worse their chances. They will be faced on Saturday by an Irish side that has made slowing down ball into an art. Virtually the entire back-line can ball steal and everybody knows by now that Ireland’s pack will be preventing their opposition from hitting the floor whenever possible.
If England are to get any ball worth speaking of, they need to hit rucks quickly, aggressively, and probably in numbers. No Louis Moody and no Tom Palmer (not injured to my knowledge) is a poor start and while I think Thompson’s been playing better, this looks more like Hartley’s sort of match. Having mentioned Palmer, the decision to not include him at all looks bizarre. If, when the real stuff starts, we’re still telling our best lineout lock and one of our better ruck hitters to go sun himself, I will not be amused.
Hartley
Another reason to start Hartley: he’s throwing better than Thompson, and with O’Connell lurking the English line-out could be in trouble. In short, I’m not expecting much more than a mess to be presented to Wigglesworth. There will probably be a lot of mess. This England pack is too strong and too experienced not to get their hands on plenty of the ball… eventually. When they do lose the ball, England’s pack will have to be on its guard as O’Brien or no O’Brien, the Irish pack is loaded with monster carriers who will be looking to punch holes. In particular, Stephen Ferris will undoubtedly celebrate a return to active duty by seeing how many Englishmen he can floor before his body gives out this time. The same goes for Ireland of course but as I’ve already said, I think Ireland will do a good job in making sure England’s ball carriers don’t go too far from their minders.
Ireland’s backs
Ireland’s backs could well undo the edge their forwards give them though, particularly if they insist on continuing to kick the ball away at every opportunity. Unfortunately, I think they’ll continue their drift away from such outdated tactics, but if they wish to continue wasting the counter-attacking potential of their back 3 and giving Foden plenty of chances to show how its done, I’d be incredibly grateful. It is, after all, probably the most likely way for England’s most talented runner will end touching the ball. Attacking ball will most likely end up going to the centres who will be asking to bosh their way through Ireland’s midfield after the Irish have got a nice run up. At least Tuilagi provides the hope of sidestepping such motion, but I fear he’s been put in the wrong place. He has the footwork and dynamism to worry the Irish at second receiver, and he also has better distribution skills than Tindall. Tindall, conversely, knows what he’s doing at 13 defensively – even if he is no longer fast enough to do it right some of the time. So England still have a potential log jam at 12 and have weakened the 13 channel defensively. If Ireland manage to get good ball to Earls through their own log jam at 12 then Tuilagi might be left looking a bit of a fool.
“It is also a near certainty that Keith Earls will get some of the Abendanon treatment at least once.“
It is also a near certainty that Keith Earls will get some of the Abendanon treatment at least once. I hope he’s looking forward to it.
The two sides look well matched through the backs actually. Two international journeymen who should do the basics ok if things go well at scrum-half. Two veterans at fly-half, both probably better known for the boot and slightly underrated as distributors as a result. I wouldn’t be surprised if O’Gara and St. J. of W. are both starting come the big games in the World Cup. Flood’s form has collapsed at the wrong moment while doubts remain about Sexton’s game management under pressure. England’s midfield is more physical, Ireland’s faster, but both consist of a sadly fading man at 12 and a raw lad with good feet at 13. This no longer holds up by the time we hit the wings. Ashton’s a phenomenal finisher but is far from the all round finished product. Trimble and Bowe are big, quick, hit good lines and have good feet. They have the whole package. And neither is Mark Cueto. Which is why it is all the better if Ireland kick away counter-attack ball as together with Geordan Murphy it’s a good unit.
Defence
I’d probably back the Irish backline, but if Gaffney’s going to have them all stood flat I won’t. D’Arcy and Earls won’t win a straight up physical confrontation with Tindall and Tuilagi. The other option practised by the Irish recently involves shuffling right to the end of the pitch and giving the wings no room. This is equally suitable to England’s desires. In general, I think if Ireland attack at all sensibly (and they will for some of the game), they will score points. There are just too many holes and gaps in England’s defence, and not enough counter-rucking ability to significantly ruin opposition ball. So the question becomes whether England can score enough to overcome the inevitable deficit.
They probably won’t. England are wasteful enough with good possession. Since that looks like being at a premium, optimism seems even more unwarranted. An English win isn’t out of the question though. Should England overcome either their wastefulness or the Ireland ball ruining machine, it would be a marked step forwards. I can’t help but feel I’m better off hoping for Irish ineptitude though.
Social Pundit’s prediction: Ireland by 4.
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