Social Pundit’s 6N Preview – 10 answers to questions you probably weren’t asking.

Posted on Feb 2, 2012 in Latest Rugby News

So, is this a bright new dawn?

No. No, it is not.

In fact, for most countries it’s not even a new dawn.

There always seems to be lots of predictions about this new player getting brought in or building a new team for the next 4 year cycle and what I’ve realised as the build-up for this tournament continues is that it’s a load of bollocks. International coaches have spent ages with their squad, honing it obsessively, to get it ready for the World Cup – they’re not going to chuck that away now that it’s been done. No, they’ll be seeing the season out with their teams if possible. The summer tours will be different, particularly as many senior players will be very tired and deserving a break, but right now this is a continuation of business. Even in England and Italy, the two countries with the most changes in their squad, the majority of the squad have been here before – albeit briefly.

So no new dawn.

Is it at least going to be a good tournament?

I wouldn’t put any large amounts of money on this being a classic of good rugby. Robinson is still picking Parks and Morrison, Italy still look short of distributors in the backs, Saint-Andre tends to play a fairly boring style of rugby, while Kidney is so bloody conservative he probably regards fire as a dangerous new innovation. That leaves Lancaster’s England and Wales. Lancaster says he wants a team that spreads the ball, but as he is relying on the frequently stodgy Saracens model to get this, I am very sceptical. It’s a bit like asking a vegetarian to butcher an animal really; technically plausible, and you know it’s been done before, but push comes to shove you know its unnatural for them. Wales played some very good stuff at the World Cup, but seemingly every Welsh peak is followed by a Welsh trough very quickly, plus their injury list looks fairly heavy.

There will be good games. The intensity and passion of the Six Nations is its main selling point anyway, not its technical prowess, and I do not see any shortage of that. Nor do I believe every team will play poor rugby simply because it’s highly unlikely I’ll be right about all of them. The majority of it though will be, I believe, fairly poor.

Is the Six Nations suffering in comparison with the Heineken Cup?

I think so, at least on the forums I use. It’s an unfair comparison really as the Heineken has six times as many games and is therefore always going to throw up more classics and genuinely exciting games. The Six Nations is still throwing up its share of classics – Scotland’s last minute loss to Wales springs to mind – and even when the standard isn’t as high in terms of flinging the ball around, you can always rely on there being a good number of very absorbing games. For intensity and drama, the Six Nations still has no superior. I’d rather watch a random Six Nations game than a random Heineken Cup game.

One thing where the Heineken Cup does have the Six Nations at present though is quality of rugby. Obviously club teams and provinces spend longer together, which does help. But I think that conceals the main reason which is the presence of some very conservative and ordinary coaching tickets, perhaps combined with a few too many players who do alright in European rugby but don’t have what is required for internationals. Therefore I live in hope that in a few years we might see coaches sending out teams who can really run the ball. Just not this year.

So, can Lancaster really turn England around?

I’m not particularly hopeful but am not ruling it out. It depends slightly on how he does it. The tools are certainly there for England to kick their way to victory and for all the talk of going wide, I really won’t be surprised if that’s what happens. A genuine jackal and harder-nosed wingers would have been nice for that approach though. The other is that Lancaster really is looking to put some width on the ball. If he can get this happening, given everything he’s had to work with, and turn attacking intent into wins, then he probably deserves the England job.

In his way though are two rather hefty obstacles. The first is the perennial English failing of quick ball. Now this pack is about as good as we can field to accomplish the task and although I’m not optimistic, I believe it can happen. The second and more difficult problem is fixing and breaking the Scottish line. This England team seems rather short of scary ball carriers in the pack. The backline will possess quite a few players who don’t offer much of a running threat, which might be Youngs’ route into the team. My main worry about England trying to move the ball is that Scotland will just drift us from one touchline to another, and I’m interested to see how Lancaster will deal with it.

Does Andy Robinson know what he’s doing?

For the past couple of years, Scotland have been doughty underdogs undone by a very serious failing, namely an inability to score tries. The reason for this failing was very obvious and I don’t think anyone blamed him too much when the likes of Parks and Morrison were genuinely the best options available, more or less. However, Edinburgh and Glasgow have been showing off some cracking attacking talent this season. Yes, a lot of them are raw youngsters, but they can score tries. Scotland went out in the World Cup because they could not put teams away when they were on top; tries are a large part of that.

Robinson’s team has Parks starting and Morrison on the bench.  Lamont at 12 is not a great improvement over Morrison in that while he’s quicker, that’s about it. A weakened England team at Murrayfield is practically the stuff of Scottish dreams and a win there would be the ideal platform in which to actually do well for once. There’s no reason this Scotland team can’t win some games, even with Paterson’s guaranteed three pointers gone, and if it doesn’t, I imagine there’ll  be loud questions over Robinson’s fitness for the job. On the other hand, a few wins (particularly against England) and Robinson will get the time to bed in the new players and create a Scotland that can genuinely score. Whatever happens, this is a big test of his coaching talents.

Are there any excuses for Declan Kidney if Ireland don’t enjoy a good Six Nations?

Having constructed a loaded question, I’ll fire off the round – no, no there aren’t.

Ireland’s three major provinces are collectively as strong as they have ever been. Confidence will be running high and a number of fringe players have been making strong cases for inclusion. He has an experienced squad, built by himself, with only minimal injury problems. France and England away is not ideal, but as both sides are somewhat in a position of flux, both are targetable. I don’t think there’s an international coach in the Northern Hemisphere in a better position to succeed.

Yet there is considerable doubt as to whether Ireland will do well. Ireland’s record over the past year has been substandard. It was Kidney’s decisions that have taken them there however, and it is Kidney’s decision to name virtually the same side as undertook most of last year. Just as it was presumably Kidney’s decision to let go of backs coach Alan Gaffney (a good decision) and then not appoint a new one (a questionable decision). He’s had a long time to think about where things went wrong last time, where the Irish attack got blunted so successfully by Wales. Irish rugby is riding high. Kidney has staked everything on the same group he’s always worked with. If this doesn’t work out, it’s hard to see why Kidney should be given another chance to give them another chance.

Are Wales really as good as people say?

We British love a gallant loser. Wales were very gallant at the World Cup but unfortunately, also very much the loser. They might argue they didn’t get the rub of the green, they might dream about what had happened had Hook’s kicks gone over. Nevertheless, they lost the majority of their games against top opposition. However, Wales won’t have to beat Australia or South Africa to win the Six Nations. Surely if the improvement there is as good as people say, then Wales have to be favourites.

Now this is a question that mightn’t get fully answered. Wales have appalling depth and a number of key men struggling to regain fitness. No Priestland and Roberts would be the biggest blow to Wales I think; they should be back fairly soon even if they miss the first game, and I hope they go well as they have potential Lions 10-12 written all over them, but nothing is certain. Even if they are lining out, there is no way a Welsh pack minus Rees, Jenkins, Jones the lock and Charteris can be called full strength. In particular I think they’ll miss Jenkins and Charteris’ work in the loose. The Guardian has suggested that the intensity of Wales’ pre-season in Poland has left them incredibly unfit; if this is true, expect a lot more broken players by the end of the Six Nations. This will make it even more difficult to work out if they’re up to the hype. Injuries however are part and parcel of the modern game. The inability to ride a few is in itself a black mark against a team. If Wales truly are the coming force some of their fans state, it’s time for them to show it.

Will Italy start actually scaring people?

On previous evidence, Italy are as scary as finding out you accidentally put a bottle of foul tasting diet red bull into your supermarket trolley instead of non-diet; irritating and worth watching out for, but not worth worrying about at all in the grand scheme of things. This paragraph is in no way influenced by realising I made that very mistake and wondering why it tasted worse than usual until I read the label. France had a similarly bad experience last year, but I think they’ll be as bothered by me. Essentially Italy will not get anywhere until they start repeating that sort of feat year in year out. The rugby gods have been kind to Italy – a shaky England and Scotland at home. There’s two victories there if they can take them.

Can they though? The Italian pack is heralded, but it’s the same beast that never quite does enough year in year out. It won’t lose them any games but neither will it win anyway and in my opinion the locks need replacing, if it was possible. Some quality strike runners are coming through to supplement what was already there and I’m looking forwards to watching how Benevuti goes at 13. However, the big question lies over their distributors, the 9-10-12 link. If that functions, I think Italy are on a definite upswing. The big decider there is their new coach. I can’t say I know much about Brunel, except I’m sure he played bass in the Stranglers, but it will be up to him to coax out what skills are there. Sgarbi seems to be a step in the right direction but there is a fair possibility I’m talking out of my arse here. Whatever happens though, if Italy are to rise, they need to do so quickly. Most of the home nations have been rather in the doldrums lately but it must be too much to hope so from Italy’s point of view that they’ll stay that way for a prolonged period. Italy can’t afford to be left behind when the upswing comes. That might be another few seasons, but the best way to keep up is to improve now.

Does anyone have a clue how France are going to go?

No.

…

Ok, fine. France have a new coach and a deserved reputation for inconsistency. A number of their players have put in impressive domestic performances but have either not played at, or been inconsistent at, international level. They do have a lot of talent and three games, so it seems to be pointing their way, but no one can truthfully say. Insightful I know, but I’m not Nostradamus.

What are Social Pundit’s predictions?

Predictions are a loser’s game, particularly when no one knows what to expect. How, I’d be wussing out if I wasn’t to have a stab of sorts, so I’ll predict the first round and then see what happens before doing anymore.

France will beat Italy. That’s a given. I think France will beat Italy quite handily. It’ll take them a while to bring down the resistance, but I think the French will be up for it and pile them on once the breakthrough comes

I’m backing England to beat Scotland, possibly because I couldn’t bear to predict otherwise. I think there’ll be a desultory period in which both sides pretend they can play rugby but the game will become more and more kick based, at which point us having Farrell and them not having Paterson will prove crucial. At which point the media will fawn disgracefully over Farrell and ignore the fact that if he could run maybe we wouldn’t have needed his boot so much. I’d really love Farrell to remember his running game. That would be great.

If Roberts and Priestland were fit (I’m assuming they won’t be), I’d be very uncertain, but I reckon Irish home advantage will tell in the last match. Everyone seems to forget how much territory and possession Ireland had in that quarter-final. Kidney’s had a long time to brood on how to change things and usually gets a result when under pressure. So Ireland to win. If Wales get to repeat smashing Roberts off good ball into D’Arcy, with a good kicker in the team, I will recant that though.

Whatever happens, I can’t wait  - flawed or not.